To take back control of the senate in 2010 the Republican Party will have to become like Bo Derek: A perfect 10.
First, the GOP must hold onto the party’s seven open seats being filled in November. Those seven — Kentucky, Kansas, Utah, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire — are held by Republican incumbents not running for re-election. In my opinion, Republicans should win almost all of them.
The exception could be in New Hampshire, where three-term Sen. Judd Gregg has announced his retirement. This race will be tough, but the Democrat will be hobbled by Obamacare. Ultimately, the Republican should win.
Those seven wins would leave 10 seats that Republicans must seize to reclaim the Senate.
In all, the GOP needs to win 10 of 13 key races to take control of the Senate. It’s doable and here’s how:
These three Democratic seats should be easy to take away:
1. Delaware
With Joe Biden’s ascension to the vice presidency, the Delaware seat is vacant. His son, Beau Biden, chose not to run (he just had a stroke although he is only 41 years old, and our prayers go out to him). That opened the way for Rep. Mike Castle, R-Del., to get into the race. Castle was elected at large as a congressman in this small state, so he is well known and well liked throughout. Polls show him far ahead of Chris Coons, the Democrat, by a 53 percent to 31 percent margin.
2. North Dakota
When Sen. Byron L. Dorgan, the three-term Democrat, announced in January that he would retire, it was seen as an indication that incumbent Democrats faced an uphill trek this election cycle. There’s a no-mercy rule in politics, but polls show popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven leading his Democratic opponent Tracy Potter, a state senator and historian, by a 69 percent to 24 percent margin.
3. Indiana
This is the seat vacated when Sen. Evan Bayh retired. Republican nominee and former Sen. Dan Coats is leading Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth by 51 percent to 36 percent, according to Rasmussen.
Winning the next six Democratic seats will prove a bit harder:
4. Pennsylvania
This race has attracted a lot of media attention following Rep. Joe Sestak’s Democratic primary victory over Sen. Arlen Specter. The Republican, former Rep. Pat Toomey, had been ahead of Sestak in the polls. Thanks to the momentum Sestak got from knocking off Specter, he jumped back out in front. But that will fade and Toomey should emerge to win.
5. Illinois
Republicans caught a break when the Democratic nominee, Alexi Giannoulias, suffered an unexpected setback. In May, federal regulators closed down the Giannoulias family-owned Broadway Bank.
Broadway Bank allegedly made tens of millions of dollars in questionable loans to mobsters. Giannoulias himself has called the news “devastating.� GOP Rep. Mark Kirk should handily win this seat, unless Democrats elect to switch to a new candidate.
6. Arkansas
At press time, it was undetermined whether incumbent Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a moderate, or Lt. Gov. Bill Halter would win the Democratic nomination, although Halter had the edge in the primary.
However, GOP Rep. John Boozman, who has represented Arkansas in Congress since 2001, should beat either one.
7. Nevada
Pick a GOP challenger — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid lags behind all of them. Reid is the ultimate insider in a cycle when that is anathema to voters.
It looks like Nevada is finally ready to roll the dice with someone else in that office.
8. Colorado
Both sides have tough primaries, but the Republicans should take this seat that was vacated by Ken Salazar, who became Interior secretary for Obama.
9. California
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is repeatedly below 50 percent in all the polls. That means she is seriously vulnerable to losing this seat in November. One factor working against her: California’s high unemployment and its $20 billion state budget shortfall. Frustration over the failure of the Obama stimulus plan to jump-start job creation could put Boxer on the canvas.
And the magic 10th seat that Republicans need to take control of the Senate? Republicans need to win only 1 of the following 4 races:
10. Connecticut
Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was heavily favored to win this vacant seat now held by Chris Dodd. But that was before he put his foot in his mouth by repeatedly claiming to have served in Vietnam — when he hadn’t been near the place! Now he’s very vulnerable.
The Republican state convention has endorsed Linda McMahon, the wife of pro wrestling executive Vince McMahon. She trails Blumenthal by a mere 3 points in the latest Rasmussen poll (48-45) and has a good chance to win.
11. Wisconsin
A very exciting new candidate — Ron Johnson — has won the state party designation to oppose Sen. Russ Feingold, the Senate’s most left-wing member. Johnson is a self-made businessman with ample resources for the race, and a real conservative. He is worth all the support we can give him.
12. Washington
In 2006, Dino Rossi won the gubernatorial election only to have it stolen during the recount process. Rossi will take on Sen. Patty Murray, who is vying for a fourth term. Rossi already runs even with Murray in the polls and has a great chance to beat her.
13. New York
We’ll have to wait until September to find out who will be the GOP challenger to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. But we do know that Gillibrand can be beaten. She was appointed to fill the seat vacated when Hillary Clinton became secretary of state. She runs even with an unnamed Republican candidate.
Conclusion: Will it be New York, Washington, Wisconsin, or Connecticut that puts the GOP over the top? Frankly, it doesn’t matter. What does count is reaching the magic number.
As originally published in Newsmax magazine.