The ETF Strategist
 

Consumer Shocker!
Holiday Shopping Bust Ahead

Retailers are bracing for the worst! Over the next six months consumer spending is due for a dramatic decline. It's already started. Fortunately there is a way you can profit from this coming economic tidal wave.

Special Year-End Forecast
by David Frazier
Editor, ETF Strategist

Dear Fellow Investor:

It's official. The holiday shopping season is off to a bad start, with millions of shoppers turning out for a few bargains but little else.

No wonder...

Saddled with record debt and sky-high gas prices, and seeing both their stock portfolios and home values in decline, Americans are in no mood to spend this year, nor will they be in the months ahead.

It'll be a dismal season for retailers. And stocks will fall lower, too, as the housing bust, record foreclosures, and $tens of billions of bad debt spread to the general economy.  

Now, for the good news. You can profit from these trends...

Simply by using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). And in my report today, I'm going to show you which ETFs could rack up 25%, 50%, and even 100% profits in 2008.

Let's start with these facts...

  • J.C. Penney's has warned it expects holiday sales to be weak. CEO, Myron Ullman recently said, "Our customers are clearly facing headwinds... we expect the challenging retail environment to continue for the foreseeable future."
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Here's the Best Way to Profit

Retailers are bracing for the worst! Over the next six months consumer spending is due for a dramatic decline. It's already started. Fortunately there is a way you can profit from this coming economic tidal wave.

In our new issue of The ETF Strategist we reveal the name of our favorite ETF that is already capturing big profits from this trend. It's up 21.5% since we first recommended it in September and we feel this is just the beginning of a huge run for this ETF.

Get the name of this ETF immediately. Sign up for a risk-free trial to The ETF Strategist today. Go here now.

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  • Macy's sales are down, and CEO Terry Lundgren recently warned that holiday sales will be flat, even with the much ballyhooed introduction of the Martha Stewart line.
  • Wal-Mart has lowered prices in an attempt to lure holiday shoppers, but says holiday sales will be flat (don't be fooled by their recent better-than expected 3rd quarter earnings, the result of a 17% increase in International sales).
  • Lowes just reported quarterly earnings 10% below last year's figures and expects continued weakness in the months ahead.
  • Plus, Target's sales and profits are down. Dillards is blaming poor sales for its losses this year. And both Borders and Barnes and Noble bookstore chains have reported quarterly losses due to slowing sales.

Okay, so how can you score BIG PROFITS on reduced consumer spending? Easy. Just use a specific bear ETF that goes up at twice the rate the Consumer Services Index declines.

This is a slam-dunk profit maker for the coming months, but before I tell you more about it and my other ETF recommendations, let me make a proper introduction.

I'm David Frazier, editor of the ETF Strategist --- your best resource for profitable and easy-to-trade Exchange Traded Funds.  

Recently with stocks at an all-time high, I advised my readers to use specific ETFs to take advantage of the imminent fall in the stock indexes, flight to quality, and decline in consumer spending.

The result? My top ETFs rose 8%, 19%  and 21% in just the last 6 weeks...

And since October 9th, my aggressive ETF portfolio is up 10% while the S&P 500 Index is down 8%.

What's more, out of a total of 567 available ETFs, two of the nine ETFs I recommended in The ETF Strategist were among the top 15 best-performing ETFs between Oct 16 and Nov 16.

But don't think you've missed out!

There's plenty more profit to come in the months ahead. You just need to know which ETFs will be the top performers, and I'm going to help you...

For example, a solid opportunity right now is high quality Utilities ETFs, which will benefit from a slowing economy, falling interest rates, and a flight to quality.

 

For proof, consider what happened in 2000...


Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Top-10
Holdings vs. S&P 500 Index chart

As the U.S. economy slowed, the top 10 holdings in the Dow Jones Utilities Index rose a startling 67% from March to December, while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 took a dive.

We've got a similar situation today, but with a much greater advantage...

Today, we can get a 2x ETF for the Utilities Index, which would generate a whopping 134% profit on a similar index move.   

Nice? You bet, and just ahead I'm going to give you the name and trading symbol of my top 2x Utility ETF recommendation, which could soar 50% to 100% in just the next 6 months...

I also want to extend an invitation to try The ETF Strategist FREE for 60 days with no risk or obligation, so you can receive all of my current ETF recommendations.

But before we get to that, let's look at the market...

There's a strong temptation to believe that the recent fall in stocks was just a short-lived correction, and that the usual Santa Claus Rally will extend into a bullish 2008.

Don't be fooled. Stocks in general -- especially those in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 — will be coming down in the months ahead. And here's why...

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to trend downward. Real estate prices are still falling. And consumer spending, which accounts for 72% of the U.S. economy, is beginning to falter.

Recent economic data suggests we are at the very end of the expansion, and are now in jeopardy of entering a recession by early 2008 (see why just ahead).

Even more telling...

This is only the 7th time in the past 37 years that my highly accurate Investment Model has triggered a "sell signal" for stocks. And on the previous six occasions, the S&P 500 fell between 17 and 41 percent (note: it has already fallen 8% off its high).

Small-cap stocks, such as those in the Russell 2000, will fall even more, as they always do in a slowing economy.  

But here's the good news…

While my Investment Model is showing a sell signal for stocks in general, it's also showing a buy signal for utilities, and some specialty ETFs that go up when stocks go down…

In spite of a slowing economy, you can still make 50% to 100% profits in the coming year, if you get into the right ETFs now.

And that's why I want you to have two special reports I've just completed:

Mega Profit Utilities ETFs for 2008.
Protect yourself from the slowing economy. A profit windfall ahead for investors in these top two utilities ETFs.

5 Monster Breakout ETFs to Buy Now.
Five ETFs about to explode upward
that could make you 50 to 100% profits
in the coming year.

You can download these reports FREE today...

But first, let's look at the obvious signs the economy is slowing, along with the investment sectors that could generate 50% to 100% profits in the months ahead.


Consumers Losing
Confidence, Tightening Purses

Orders for the all-important durable goods; household furniture, appliances, consumer electronics, and automobiles -- have fallen significantly in recent months in response to declining consumer confidence.

The Institute of Supply Management reported on October 1st that its Purchasing Managers' index of manufacturing activity -- a leading economic indicator fell for the 3rd month in a row.

And just two weeks before that, the Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators continued to trend lower in August.

S&P 500 Index vs. Index of Leading
Economic Indicators

chart2

Note that stock prices have historically fallen sharply lower after this indicator turns negative. But not right away. Typically, stocks climb higher for a few more months -- exactly what we've seen in the market in recent months!

In other words, the S&P 500 is likely to fall soon, if it hasn't already begun to slide by the time you receive this bulletin. The small-cap Russell 2000 will likely fall by an even bigger percentage

And that opens up some big profit opportunities with select ETFs (see my recommendations just ahead).


Housing Market Is Worsening

One of the biggest warnings of a potential U.S. economic downturn is the overall health of the U.S. housing market. Look here…

On September 27th, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the biggest decline in the median sales price of new homes since 1970, while reporting new housing starts fell to their lowest level in 12 years.

On October 2nd, the National Association of Realtors reported that its index of pending home sales declined 22 percent in August – the biggest decline since they started collecting this data.

In mid November, John Stumph, the president of Wells Fargo, shocked a banking audience when he said, "The housing market is experiencing its worst decline since the Great Depression... rapidly declining housing prices are likely to put even more pressure on delinquencies and defaults."  

Even Alan Greenspan came out of retirement to say the slumping housing market would likely get worse and could trigger "severe economic consequences."

He said, We've seen a number of American homebuilders go through significant fire sales to get rid of their inventories at very substantial discounts."

According to Greenspan, builders have been caught with double their usual inventories. And this glut of "housing" is causing home values to decline. That hurts all homeowners, and especially those who use their home equity as an ATM.  

A further erosion of real estate prices (something Greenspan expects to happen) will cause a slow down in consumer spending. And that would be "a very significant development," he says.  

Why? Because 15% of consumer spending comes from the "wealth effect."

You see, when consumers see their home values and stock portfolios rising, they spend more. But when both stocks and home prices are falling, they spend less. At 72% of the U.S. Economy, therein lies the seed of recession (see the 2x ETF that profits from reduced consumer spending).

The fed may have acted too late. They cut rates by 50 basis points on September 18th. And another 25 basis points on October 30th. And also said...

"We are now more concerned about keeping the economy
strong and less worried about inflation."

Be warned. The U.S. economy is slowing. Stocks - especially those in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 -- will be coming down. And we could see further cuts in interest rates.

Okay, but what does all this have to do with Utilities. Plenty!


Utilities To Be One Of The
Biggest Gainers

By lowering interest rates, the fed won't be able to stop the economic slow down, maybe not even prevent the recession. But…

…Lower interest rates, falling stocks, and especially the "flight to safety" will send the Utilities Index soaring!

Remember, utilities go up, when interest rates come down.

And even if interest rates were to stay the same, or just come down a little, utilities will still benefit enormously from the "flight to safety."

Once the reality of a lower stock market sets in you'll see tens of thousands of fund managers fleeing out of S&P 500 and Russell 2000 stocks and into the safe harbors of dividend-paying stocks, utilities and high quality bonds.

And that means a profit windfall for shareholders of my top ETF recommendations in Mega Profit Utilities ETFs for 2008 and 5 Monster Breakout ETFs To Buy Now.

Okay. Are you ready? Earlier, I promised you the trading symbol of my top Utilities ETF recommendation, and here it is...

Pro Shares Ultra Utilities Fund (symbol UPW). This 2x ETF seeks investment results that correspond to twice the daily performance of the Dow Jones Utilities Index.

Already the Utilities Index has moved up the ranks to the 4th-best performing sector recently, and I expect it to go even higher.

In fact, I believe this ETF has the potential to gain as much as 100% over the next 6 to 12 months. And it carries very little stock-market related risk.

For the full story on the slowing U.S. economy, the advantages of getting into utilities now, and full details on my top Utilities ETF recommendations, see your FREE copy of Mega Profit Utilities ETFs for 2008.

But don't stop there. You'll find more exceptional ETF opportunities for today's economy in your FREE copy of
5 Monster Breakout ETFs To Buy

You can download both of these reports FREE right now simply by accepting my invitation to try the ETF Strategist FREE for 60 dayswith no risk and no obligation. Click here to get started.


Why Try The ETF Strategist?

ETFs offer the safety and diversity of mutual funds, with the speed, convenience and low trading costs associated with stocks. Check these advantages...

  • ETFs trade like stocks at any time during the trading day.
  • ETFs have lower expense ratios than mutual funds.
  • ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds.
  • ETFS have fewer investment restrictions.
  • ETFs are more transparent, reporting their holdings daily.

And today, with more than 500 ETFs covering every major index, sector, and industry- and more coming every day - there is simply no better investment vehicle to capture the big moves, wherever they might be.

LOOK HERE...

The iShares China 25 Index Fund (FXI) soared 81% in 2006, as China's economy grew at a blistering pace that year.

The iShares DJ Aerospace & Defense Index rose 41% in 12 months on the war effort...

...iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (EWA) climbed 37% from mid 2006 to mid 2007, while iShares S&P Global Materials Index Fund (IYM) rose 26%. Why? Because of soaring demand for industrial goods and commodities.

Even more recently, iPath GSCI Crude Oil Index (OIL) jumped 69% in 5 weeks from late August through September 2007, when the demand for oil outstripped supply and hurricanes threatened the Gulf of Mexico. And then climbed 21% more, when crude rose to $98 a barrel in November.

Do you see the advantage of using ETFs to capture the biggest moves, just as they are emerging? Sure. And the above examples are exactly the kinds of opportunities you'll get as a subscriber to The ETF Strategist!

To download your FREE reports with all of my current top ETF recommendations, plus receive your 60-Day FREE TRIAL to The ETF Strategist, click here.

Or to learn more, read on...


Professional Research, And
Analysis For Individual Investors

For decades institutional investors have routinely beat the market by investing in the "right sectors at the right time."

By contrast, most individual investors have taken high risks when chasing yesterday's stock winners, or settled for mediocre returns with a buy-and-hold strategy in under performing mutual funds.

But now some investors are getting smart...

With The ETF Strategist YOU CAN KNOW which sectors are about to take off, and which ones are about to tank. And you can get the ETFs best positioned to capture these significant moves.

My mission at The ETF Strategist is to identify the ETFs poised to break out. The ones entering the "sweet spot" of exceptional growth. Those destined to be the top performers in the next 3, 6, and 12 months!

Let me show you how I identify tomorrow's biggest winners, and then I'll show you more great ETF opportunities for 50% to 100% profits in the months ahead.

(Note: if you're the impatient type and don't care to know my methodology, just skip ahead to the subhead, Five Monster Breakout ETFs to Buy Now).



How I Find Tomorrow's
Biggest Winners

I use three proprietary investment models to select the top-performing ETFs in The ETF Strategist  -- an Asset & Sector Allocation Model, a Sector & Industry Relative Performance Model, and an ETF Comparison Model.

My Asset & Sector Allocation Model identifies the current stage of the business cycle and forecasts which asset classes and economic sectors are likely to perform best in the next 3 to 6 months.

This model consists of 97 financial and economic variables, and 13 investor sentiment indicators. And, in addition to processing a vast amount of U.S. economic data, this model looks at the economic growth, inflation and interest rates of many foreign countries and regions.

Basically, it tells us whether or not to invest in ETFs comprised of stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, or real estate, as well as sectors such as basic materials, financial, or healthcare, or countries such as China, India, or Brazil -to name just a few.

Next, my Relative Performance Model ranks the price performance of the major economic sectors (and 130 industries within those sectors) relative to all the others, and does so over the most recent one-week, one-month, and three-month periods.

This is a momentum model that identifies the sectors and industries that have recently been improving in performance, and are likely to continue to move up in rank. It also reveals the opposite those sectors and industries that are falling back.

With the first two models, I can pinpoint those sectors and industries not only likely to do well in the next 3 to 6 months but that are moving up and showing recent strength. And, conversely, those showing weakness, which will become candidates for the bear ETFs.

Then, once I know which asset classes, economic sectors, and specific industries are likely to be the top performers in the coming months, all that remains is to choose the best ETFs within those market segments.

 

My ETF Comparison Model helps me to analyze every ETF with significant holdings in our target market segments, comparing their historical performance records during various market environments, and thus determining which ones will likely produce the best risk-adjusted results for our purposes.

Okay. That's what goes into every recommendation I make in The ETF Strategist. And remember, with both bull and bear ETFs available to us today, we can profit in both directions. And even get 1.5 and 2 times the return on many indexes and sectors.

It's just a great time to be using ETFs. And you'll find no better source for ETF recommendations than The ETF Strategist.

To get your 60-Day FREE TRIAL and free download of Mega Profit Utilities ETFs for 2008and 5 Monster Breakout ETFs to Buy Now, just click here.

Or...to see what my models are saying now, and what kind of ETFs are destined to be the top performers in the months ahead, read on...



Five Monster Breakout ETFs
To Buy Now
  1. Small-cap stocks will fall: As the economy slows and stocks fall, the biggest losers will be small-cap stocks. And this 2x bear ETF goes up at twice the rate of the decline for the Russell 2000. When the Dow fell by 520 points in two days this past July, this ETF soared 18%. Look for a 50% gain in the next 6 to 12 months. BUY


  2. Quality bonds will rise: As the economy slows and interest rates come down, portfolio managers will switch out of S&P 500 and Russell 2000 stocks and into dividend paying stocks, utilities, and high quality bonds. My top intermediate-term bond ETF is a safe haven with the potential to gain 30% in the next 3 to 6 months! BUY


  3. Food prices will continue to rise: In spite of a slowing economy, people have to eat. And the fast-rising middle classes of China and India are putting enormous pressure on food prices. Demand for wheat, corn, soybeans and sugar will soon swamp supply, giving my recommended agriculture ETF the potential to jump 50% to 100% in the next 6 to 12 months! BUY


  4. Utilities prices will rise: You already know why utilities will be going up. Now get my top utilities ETF recommendations, including this internationally-focused fund, managed by a world-renowned Wharton Finance professor and a legendary hedge fund manager. Their top holdings have not only been paying generous dividends, but growing sales and earnings, too. Safety with a potential 50% gain in the next 6 to 12 months! BUY


  5. Consumer spending will decline: With real estate values falling and consumers losing confidence, the next thing we'll see is a slowdown in spending. Companies like Home Depot, Lowe's, Sears, plus apparel chains, hotel chains, restaurant chains, entertainment, travel and tourism companies -- all will suffer. For a 50% to 100% winner, get my recommended 2x bear ETF that goes up at twice the rate of decline for the Consumer Services Index! BUY

Okay. As you can see, there's plenty of money to be made in the next 3, 6, and 12 months. Even 50% to 100% profits! And you'll learn all in your FREE REPORTS, which you can download now: click here.

But most important, I hope I've done a good job today of warning you about the problems ahead, alerting you to the best profit opportunities, and showing you how ETFs can play a key role in your portfolio.

ETFs are easy to use, and you can make money whether stock prices are going up, down, or sideways. You can also protect your portfolio against losses when other investors are losing their shirts.

What's more, you can use ETFs to construct a conservative portfolio, a moderate portfolio, or an aggressive one. And virtually every asset class, sector, industry, country or region is available to you - many at 1.5 and 2 times the return.

All you need is to succeed is expert guidance. And that's where I come in...



Get your 60-Day No-Risk
FREE TRIAL NOW!

To get all the key facts about our economy, which ETFs will post the biggest returns in the months ahead, plus ongoing expert buy-hold-sell advice…

I urge you to try a No-Risk 60-Day FREE TRIAL to The ETF Strategist today!

You'll receive an immediate download of my two reports, Mega Profit Utilities ETFs for 2008 and 5 Monster Breakout ETFs To Buy Now. Plus, some valuable start-up materials that will empower you to invest with confidence!

There's No Obligation: If at any time during your 60-Day FREE TRIAL you decide ETF Strategist is not for you, simply cancel with no obligation – and no money spent!

But if you discover, as hundreds of Newsmax readers have, that ETF Strategist is your best guide to profitable ETF investing, do nothing and you can remit just $249 for a full year's subscription, or $34.95 per month if you prefer convenient monthly billing.

Wow! You can't beat that offer, so give The ETF Strategist a FREE TRY. With 50% to 100% profits ahead, you'll be glad you did. To see everything you'll receive
Click here for your 60-day FREE TRIAL!

Sincerely,

David Frazier
Editor

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